Ontario Housing Market as of January 2024
The average home price in Ontario’s housing market slumped to its lowest level over the past year, in January 2024 after decreasing 4% in one month to $821,624 in January 2024, while the benchmark home price was $849,000. However, Ontario’s average home price is still 3% higher than January 2023’s average home price of $798,468, which at that time was the lowest since January 2021. Looking at another measure of prices, the benchmark home price for a “typical” home in Ontario was $849,000, down 0.4% from last year and the lowest that Ontario’s benchmark home price has ever been since August 2021. That’s a 29-month low.
Nationally, Canada’s housing market is instead seeing an upward tick in prices as the national average price experienced an increase of 8% year-over-year, at $659,395 in January 2024, which is also a 0.3% monthly increase. That’s far removed from Ontario’s pronounced 4% monthly price decrease compared to December 2023.
There was quite a positive upswing in active residential listings in Ontario, which increased by 14% from January 2023 to 29,825 – the highest number of active listings in five years for January. Meanwhile, there were 19,363 new residential listings, an increase of 7.5% from January 2023 and the highest number of new listings for January in five years.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) in January 2024 was recorded at 49%. This ratio represents a balanced market, which has an SNLR of between 40% and 60%, and indicates that there is balanced buyer demand compared to seller supply in the housing market. While there is a steep drop from December 2023’s SNLR of 86%, December is usually a slow month for new listings
Looking at Ontario’s major urban housing markets in terms of annual price changes for January 2024, many cities are still seeing higher home prices compared to last year. The exceptions are Kitchener and Brampton, with Kitchener-Waterloo’s housing market seeing prices 0.2% lower compared to the same month last year, whileBrampton home prices are down 2% year-over-year.
Many urban housing markets in Ontario are still seeing year-over-year increases in average home prices, such as Mississauga (+14%), Hamilton (+6%), and Ottawa(+3%). In London, home prices are up 3.5% year-over-year. The City of Toronto has seen prices decrease 3% year-over-year.
Overall, the Ontario housing market continues to experience a mix of trends and varying levels of activity, with some regions seeing modest growth while others are experiencing declines
Ontario’s Housing Market Forecast: Things to Watch
A look at house price forecasts by Canada’s major banks gives us a look at what they predict Ontario house prices will be in 2023 and 2024.
RBC predicts that Ontario home prices will decrease 13.7% in 2023, and increase 2.9% in 2024. RBC also forecasts that home sales in Ontario will decrease by 13.9% in 2023 and increase by 34.1% in 2024.
TD predicts that Ontario average home prices will fall by 13.3% in 2023 before rising a modest 0.8% in 2024. For Ontario home sales, TD forecasts an 8.1% decrease for 2023 and an 18% increase in 2024.